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The Effect of Air Pollution on Mortality: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke in Mexico
Abstract
Wildfires produce large amounts of air pollution via smoke, which can travel far beyond the original fire location. This paper studies the causal effect of wildfire smoke exposure on mortality in Mexico. I merge satellite image data on wildfire smoke plumes with administrative death records and leverage high-frequency variation in smoke exposure within municipalities over time. Using data from air pollution monitors, I show that wildfire smoke over a municipality increases PM2.5 air pollution by 11%. At the same time, mortality increases by 1.87 deaths per million on the day of smoke, and by an additional 1.69 deaths per million over the next three days. The mortality effects are concentrated among individuals over 60 years old, with the largest effects for those over 80 and no effects for those below 50. The main effect on short-term mortality in Mexico is high compared to prior studies in developed countries. Within Mexico, the effects are also larger for individuals in poorer municipalities. Overall, this paper provides new evidence on short-term mortality effects of wildfire smoke across all age groups in Mexico, and suggests key heterogeneity in the harms of air pollution by income.
Work in Progress
- Air Pollution and Infant Health: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke in Mexico
- The Effect of Negative Wealth Shocks on Employment: Evidence from Tornadoes